The possibility of raw material prices breaking down again is also very small. The lead plate market generally fluctuated slightly. Under the background of the continuous slowdown of economic growth, the black varieties are under huge pressure on the demand side, and the related varieties will face the problem of rematching supply and demand in the future. He Jianhui believes that if the supply side can be effectively contracted and supply and demand are rebalanced in the future, the trend of related varieties may gradually stabilize; if the supply-side de-capacity does not progress smoothly in the future, price reduction is still the most effective means to eliminate excess capacity. At that time, the price of related varieties may be continue to fall.

 In September of this year, Tangshan rolling materials were all at a new low in ten years, and some enterprises even suffered losses. The production reduction and maintenance of rolling lines were frequent, resulting in low rolling mill inventory. However, the price of steel in various markets continued to drop, and the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers to place orders was frustrated, resulting in less inventory in the lead plate market and an increase in the shortage of specifications. After the news of the production shutdown was carefully interpreted, it was reported that the actual impact was not as severe as previously imagined, and downstream users were cautious about the sharp rise in steel prices, resulting in a sharp drop in rolled steel sales, spread of panic, and steel prices falling again Falling endlessly. The panic decline continued for a whole week, and the decline was larger. In the process of this round of Tangshan billet ex-factory price decline, narrow-strip steel once again played the role of "vanguard". Last time, I talked about the sharp rebound in the ex-factory price of steel billets in Tangshan, and the strength was strong; in addition to the trend, the lead plate was more caused by the concentrated effect of macro news. This time, we will focus on discussing and thinking about the downstream demand of steel billets in Tangshan. First, we will start with several large-scale rolling materials in Tangshan, and try to explain as much as possible the beginning and end of the sharp decline in steel billets this week. This week, the finished products fell almost across the board, and some varieties fell by more than 100. The main reason was that the terminal demand was always sluggish, but last week, the price of steel rose too fast. Affected by the decline in finished products, the overall import of mines is mainly wait-and-see, and with the end of the steel mill replenishment, the mainstream resources will be in the port in the later period, and the inventory has become the focus of merchants. Although the low-level transaction at the port is relatively good, most people are not confident that the transaction will continue to improve, and they only say that they will take one step at a time. high probability event. The impact on the market price of billets is limited. More than 80% of the section steel enterprises need to purchase billets, and they have the highest dependence on billets. However, most of the strip mills have blast furnaces, and most of the billets have surplus, and some of the resources are mostly sold out, which plays a decisive role in the impact on the market price. Due to the sharp rise in the Tangshan steel billet last week, the profit of exporting square steel has narrowed, and some enterprises are even unprofitable, which has greatly reduced the purchase of steel billet; Stop buying billets.